Future prediction of Population, Birth and Fertility rates in India

Authors

  • Nomula Chandan Babu Humanities and Commerce, Sainikpuri, Secunderabad, Telangana
  • Sai Padma Aluri Humanities and Commerce, Sainikpuri, Secunderabad, Telangana https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7597-3868

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47203/IJCH.2024.v36i01.025

Keywords:

Fertility Rate, Birth Rate, Population Density, Demographic Transition, Life History Theory

Abstract

Background: Fertility rates have been declining worldwide over the past fifty years, part of a phenomenon known as “the demographic transition”. Aims & Objectives: To draw on life history theory to examine the relationship between population density and fertility rate in India over 74 years. Material &Methods: The association between population versus Birth rate and population versus fertility rate was found using Correlation Analysis, to fit the models using Least square methods. Results: A robust association was found between population and fertility rate, population and Birth rate over the analyzed time period. Population, Birth rate, and Fertility rate for one decade were also forecasted using the best least square method. Conclusion: The analysis shows that the population is on an increasing trend and the Birth rate and fertility rate have decreased tendency.

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Author Biography

Nomula Chandan Babu, Humanities and Commerce, Sainikpuri, Secunderabad, Telangana

Dr.Nomula is working in the department of Maths and Statistics from 2015 and awarded with Telangana state best teacher award for 2022. 

References

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Lutz, Wolfgang, Maria Rita Testa, and Dustin J. Penn. Population density is a key factor in declining human fertility. Popul Environ 200;28:69-81.

Vollset, Stein Emil, et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet 2020;396.10258: 1300-1303.

Zhu, Xiaoxia, et al. Prediction models and associated factors on the fertility behaviors of the floating population in China. Front. Public Health 2022;10:977103.

Health and family welfare statistics in India. Government of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Statistics Division 2019-20.

India Birth Rate 1950-2023: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/birth-rate

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Published

2024-02-29

How to Cite

1.
Babu NC, Aluri SP. Future prediction of Population, Birth and Fertility rates in India. Indian J Community Health [Internet]. 2024 Feb. 29 [cited 2024 Jul. 24];36(1):153-5. Available from: https://www.iapsmupuk.org/journal/index.php/IJCH/article/view/2789

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