Predictive Accuracy of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model in Rural South India – A Community Based Retrospective Cohort Study

  • Farah N Fathima
  • Deepa Raghunath
  • Shailendra Kumar Hegde
  • Twinkle Agrawal
  • Dominic Misquithq
  • Pruthvish Sreekantiah

Abstract

Background: Identification of individuals at risk of developing cardiovascular diseases by risk stratification is the first step in primary prevention. Aims & Objectives: To assess the five year risk of developing a cardiovascular event from retrospective data and to assess the predictive accuracy of the non laboratory based National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) risk prediction model among individuals in a rural South Indian population. Materials & Methods: A community based retrospective cohort study was conducted in three villages where risk stratification was done for all eligible adults aged between 35-74 years at the time of initial assessment using the NHANES risk prediction charts. Household visits were made after a period of five years by trained doctors to determine cardiovascular outcomes. Results: 521 people fulfilled the eligibility criteria of whom 486 (93.3%) could be traced after five years. 56.8% were in low risk, 36.6% were in moderate risk and 6.6% were in high risk categories. 29 persons (5.97%) had had cardiovascular events over the last five years of which 24 events (82.7%) were nonfatal and five (17.25%) were fatal. The mean age of the people who developed cardiovascular events was 57.24 ± 9.09 years. The odds ratios for the three levels of risk showed a linear trend with the odds ratios for the moderate risk and high risk category being 1.35 and 1.94 respectively with the low risk category as baseline. Conclusion: The non laboratory based NHANES charts did not accurately predict the occurrence of cardiovascular events in any of the risk categories.

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Published
2015-03-31
How to Cite
1.
Fathima F, Raghunath D, Hegde S, Agrawal T, Misquithq D, Sreekantiah P. Predictive Accuracy of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model in Rural South India – A Community Based Retrospective Cohort Study. Indian J Community Health [Internet]. 31Mar.2015 [cited 14Oct.2019];27(1):110-6. Available from: http://www.iapsmupuk.org/journal/index.php/IJCH/article/view/541
Section
Original Article

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